I was trying to build a case by way of graph to present to the owner of a pair of very rare old British cars I am wanting to purchase here in Saint John. Despite months of pleading with the owner and showing him reams of data of actual sales in the recent past he was way out touch with reality on his asking price at 5X the reasonable market value. He was convinced because he had 2 of the 20 made they would be worth their weight in gold. The case I was trying to display for him was that scarcity of a model or marque does drive the price of a car up to a point BUT that at a certain point (i.e. when the car becomes an orphan) the interest and therefore the desirability can in many cases drop the value dramatically. Of course this does not apply many models like a DB4 or classic Rolls Royce but does apply to the value of his car as it is so obscure as to be unknown by the collector/enthusiast community. No celebrity drove one, James bond did not drive one in a movie. It was not a styling masterpiece like an EType or game changer like an AC Cobra. It was just an ordinary car that did not sell so well in the day. And now after 16 years in his basement it is rather worn out.
This has not been as easy as I thought it should have been. I should have paid better attention in statistics class. So if anybody out there know how to plot a three way graph of price verses availability verses desirability. HELP
But in my hunt I did haul this link off the old interweb Hagerty British car index. And I thought it would be of interest to the club members as many of the cars used in this are within our members tight little grasps. I see now that what I suspected is really true and I do really need to increase the stated value amount insurance on the MGA.
Ralph H.
11 comments:
Hmmmm, interesting problem Ralph. By the way, I cought the neighbour with the GT6 outside today and he's still unsure about selling it. I think we should forget about that particular car.
Is this gent smart enough to understand a graph? Perhaps you should present a simpler sales pitch. Show him sales numbers and prices from eBay and any other venue you can find. Tell him the tale of your extremely rare Austin. Don't forget that you're dealing with someone's ego here. That alone may override any common sense and sales numbers. He may be asking an outragious price as an excuse to keep the car.
Bob E.
That should be 'caught'
A GRAPH WITH THREE VARIABLES WOULD NEED TO BE THREE DIMENSIONAL.
GOOD LUCK.
Anything is only worth what someone else is prepared to pay for it. If your seller is REALLY interested in selling his cars he could wait until hell freezes over if he insists on his price, or take what is offered. However, it seems to me that he is not that bothered about selling - just looking to see what he can get for his antiques.
I'd simply make him an offer that you feel is reasonable and tell him to take it or leave it.
Good Luck
Paul
I totally agree with Paul,offer what your prepared to pay and walk away. Over the years I have come across dozens of people who want to sell their car at what they think its worth, one being a wood chassis Marcos at 150,000 pounds when a nice E Type could be had at that time for 25,000.The guys probably dead by now and his sons put a match to it.
If he comes back to you in a years time to take your offer tell him its gone down in value by 25%.
Kelvin
Give him an offer in writing but stipulate that it is for a 30 day period and then it goes down a thousand dollars per month, I bought a boat this way and saved $3000 and a snowblower at $100 per month at the end of winter
2 cv Bob
Thanks fellows I had given the fellow an encyclopedia of information on the recent sales and copies of emails from experts. all in writing and followed up with written offers and face to face meetings. Guy would not budge off the $10000 until last month he dropped to $9000. Shame as It would be a great project. still I am a visual sort and would like to have a chart or graph to show this.
Ralph
What the heck kind of car is it anyway?
Bob E.
This is the very rare Bond Equipe(s) convertible I have been after since August. one restorable and one parts car of the 20 or so that are said to have been made. I like my cars like my steaks VERY RARE. Ralph H
And I am not finished with him yet
Ralph H
Ralph,
Just for giggles I made a spreadsheet and graph in XL with various variables, age, mileage, condition etc with "desirability" being the resulting variable. It's sort of 3-D.
If you'd like to e-mail me I can send it to you as I can't include it with this post ( I don't think ).
My e-mail is:
jagnut13@gmail.com
Regards
Paul
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